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Linux Mobile Phones and the U.S. Market
Penguins may be on the global march, but not in America . . . yet

Around the globe, Linux is gaining traction as an accepted operating system (OS) for mobile phones. It might appear, then, that the Linux-supporting Penguin folks have a clear path to glory. But no matter what’s happening internationally, so far Linux has not demonstrated similar success in the domestic U.S. market.

Linux supporters mention some notable statistics to bolster their claim that Linux is on the rise in the mobile phone market:

More than a dozen models are now available in various markets
It’s estimated that more than 10 million units will ship this year – and that figure is expected to nearly double next year
NEC, Panasonic and Motorola are among the leading manufacturers of Linux phones

Recent moves involving PalmSource also stir the juices of the Linux faithful – and for good reason: The venerable handheld OS firm has tried valiantly to survive amid a stalling PDA market and a mobile phone industry that easily crushes "outsiders." Last year, it grabbed China MobileSoft, a big Linux supporter, which gave the operating system additional wind in its sails.

Market reality finally caught up with PalmSource executives recently, however. So it was not overly surprising when they agreed to sell the company to Access, a Japanese software company, for $324 million. This deal, too, was very heartening to Linux supporters. Access executives said specifically that PalmSource’s move to Linux was one of the reasons it made the deal.

Linux also gets high marks on its own merits, as a solid embedded OS, due in large part to the following features:

Royalty free
Reliable
Flexible

Still, there are no identifiable Linux handsets in the U.S. Yes, you can buy one online, but realistically Linux does not yet have any U.S. mobile phone presence. Most of the action is in Asia where Japan leads the way. NTT DoCoMo offers five Linux-enabled models, and the company expects to have sold Linux handsets to one out of every 10 people in Japan by the end of this year, according to recent news reports. That said, one need only mention i-mode (or m-mode) to demonstrate the fact that wireless market trends in Japan do not always translate directly to the American market.

Linux loyalists must face a few other realities in the U.S., including the following:

Its desktop presence is puny in the U.S., despite much hype that it could challenge Microsoft;
No single company stands behind it, which hinders growth and makes corporate IT shops wary; and,
Consumers have shown little preference for any particular mobile phone OS, let alone Linux.

It is difficult, therefore, to give Linux phones a hearty thumbs-up in the U.S. market in the near-term. There are certainly a few key players who might change this reality, as follows:

Motorola has made a big commitment to Linux;
MontaVista, a key Linux distributor, has a good chance of pushing this OS;,
Trolltech, which offers an application platform for embedded Linux, has growing clout in the market; and,
Samsung could be a player, having shipped the Linux-based i519 for the Chinese market back in late 2003.

It’s important to remember that it wasn't so long ago that Palm was considered to be a mobile phone OS darling. Until Linux shows some real market muscle (i.e., shipments in the millions) outside Asia, it remains an open question whether the Linux OS will ever fly in America.

After all, even with the huge corporate and financial backing received by Microsoft's Windows Mobile (and Pocket PC Phone Edition) operating system, it still struggles. Early next year, Motorola will release a Windows Mobile device, the Q, in a bid to challenge RIM's BlackBerry turf. So, one has to wonder how loyal Motorola will be to Linux, especially because Motorola was once solidly behind Symbian, too.

And Palm, the remaining hardware side of the original company, is heavily rumored to be working on a Windows Mobile-based Treo. So even if Linux gets a foothold here, it will have plenty of competition from Microsoft’s OS.

Linux is not necessarily destined to fail in the U.S. wireless market. But at this point, it hasn't even gotten a toehold. The overarching message here is this: Beware of the foreign hype. The U.S. handset market follows its own rules, and they’re often brutal.

— Neil Strother, Research Director, Mobile Devices